The Philippines increased its so- called rediscounting rate, one of the interest rates it charges lenders for borrowing money from the central bank, as it began to unwind stimulus measures amid accelerating economic growth.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the rediscounting rate by half a percentage point to 4 percent, effective Feb. 1, and kept the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 4 percent for a fifth straight meeting, it said in Manila yesterday. The decision on the main interest rate was expected by all 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The global economic recovery and surging commodity prices are fanning inflation, prompting countries from Australia to Vietnam to raise borrowing costs. Philippine growth accelerated to the fastest pace in a year last quarter, a report showed yesterday, and the central bank signaled it may require banks to set aside more money as reserves.
“This is a definite step to normalization,” said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Forecast Singapore Pte. “The central bank is reversing an emergency measure they implemented last year now that the economy is no longer in a state of crisis.”
The yield on the benchmark 6.25 percent debt due January 2014 fell two basis points to 6.07 percent, according to Tradition Financial Services. The peso erased earlier losses and gained 0.2 percent to 46.595 per dollar at the 4 p.m. close of trading, before the rate decision.
Earlier Move
The central bank set the rediscount rate at 0.5 percentage point below the benchmark rate in March 2009 to boost lenders’ access to funds amid the global financial crisis, Governor Amando Tetangco said yesterday.
“Since the risk of contagion from global financial stresses is markedly reduced, with the sustained stability in global financial markets, the need for more liberalized pricing of rediscounting loans is now less,” he said. “With the favorable inflation outlook, keeping policy rates steady would continue to support economic activity.”
The move came earlier than anticipated, said Prakriti Sofat, a regional economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore. Still, the first increase in the benchmark rate won’t come until the third quarter to support the recovery, she said.
“There’s still so much liquidity in the system; the adjustment in the rediscounting rate won’t have a tightening impact,” Sofat said. “Definitely they’re taking the right step, giving the signals, trying to control inflation expectations.”
Inflation, Growth
Inflation in the Philippines accelerated to an eight-month high of 4.4 percent in December, driven by rising oil and food costs. The central bank raised its forecast for price gains this year to 4.7 percent from 4 percent to take into account higher utility costs, Assistant Governor Cyd Amador said yesterday, adding that inflation will remain within targets in 2010 and 2011.
Bangko Sentral will review the level of reserves it requires banks to maintain, with a possible increase depending on money supply, Amador said after the rate decision.
Gross domestic product increased 1.8 percent from a year earlier last quarter, compared with a revised 0.4 percent gain in the three months through September, the National Statistical Coordination Board said in Manila yesterday.
Ayala Land Inc., the Philippines’ largest builder, expects a “very strong” start in 2010 as low interest rates spur home purchases, Chairman Fernando Zobel de Ayala said this month. The company forecasts it will sell 9,200 residential units this year, up from 2,500 units last year, Zobel said Jan. 19.
Stimulus Measures
Easing inflation last year allowed Bangko Sentral to slash the benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 2 percentage points from December 2008 to July 2009 to support economic growth as exports collapsed. Policy makers also reduced the amount of cash banks need to set aside as reserves and raised the amount of money available for loans to local lenders in late 2008.
The main interest rate is at the lowest level since central bank data started in 1990.
The People’s Bank of China increased the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves this month. Malaysia’s central bank said this week borrowing costs cannot be kept “too low” for too long even as it kept the benchmark rate unchanged. Australia and Vietnam raised interest rates last quarter.
“With the increase in the rediscounting rate, the central bank is sending a signal to the market that it is beginning to slow the flow of liquidity,” said Jonathan Ravelas, a market strategist at Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. in Manila.
Ravelas expects the benchmark rate to rise at the end of the second quarter as uncertainty about the global recovery and “election-related concerns” ease, he said. Forecast’s Varathan said the central bank may consider a rate increase in April.
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